Conveners
Flash Flood Prediction: Flash Flood Prediction
- Stefan Kollet (Research Center Juelich)
- Carina Furusho (Jülich Research Centre )
Presentation materials
Several efforts have been made to enhance our knowledge on how flash floods occur and to develop forecasting techniques that anticipate their impacts. Short-term ensemble forecasts have been considered crucial to assess forecast uncertainty and improve flood warning. This presentation focuses on the challenges of evaluating the performance of ensemble forecasts of flash floods. It is based on...
The changing frequency and severity of extreme flood events are becoming increasingly apparent over multi-decadal timescales at the global scale, even though confidence in climate risk scenarios is clouded by the confounding effects of hydrological and landscape system dynamics and time-varying factors such as land use changes. Improved flood risk management builds upon disentangling climate...
We present a framework for flash flood nowcasting using the partial differential equation (PDE)-based ParFlow hydrologic model forced with quantitative radar precipitation estimates and nowcasts. The prelimiar results for a small 18.5 km 2 headwater catchment in Germany is chosen to illustrate the application of such framework for 2 aims: the first is to verify the applicability of PDE-based...
Forecasting flash floods some hours in advance is
still a challenge, especially in environments made up of many
small catchments, where uncertainties in magnitudo and spatial location of forecast rainfall are generally high. The scope of this work is to exploit both observations and modelling sources to improve the discharge prediction in
small catchments with a lead time of 2–8 h.
We used a...
Reliable and timely flood forecasts help improve flood preparedness and recovery. Unlike riverine and coastal flooding where forecasting methods are well established, surface water and flash flood forecasting presents a unique challenge due to the high uncertainties around predicting the location, timing and impact of what are typically localised events.
Thanks to the recent rapid...
Direct current meter measurements are rarely available for extreme flash floods. Corresponding discharges are generally estimated using so-called “indirect” techniques such as the slope – area method. These methods are based on empirical hydraulic formulae that typically use Manning’s equation, and have been calibrated and also widely tested for flow conditions that differ significantly from...
Around the world, such as in southeastern Brazil, extreme rainfall events cause
several socioeconomic damages. Due to some of its characteristics, as the high
space-time variability, these events are difficult to predict. Methods based on
deep learning can be one of the solutions for this type of issue. These methods
have a high capacity to learning through historical events. This research...
